Marketing Management · Segment-and-launch market with A/B tests

🧪 How to play Launch Lab

You launch a healthy snack bar across the GCC and must choose who it is for and build it for them.

Join a game Run it as facilitator Print this guide

Your goal

Winning means the highest total profit over three quarters with a product that truly fits its target segments. A clear target, a recipe that matches it and a price the segment accepts beat a bar that tries to please everyone.

You run one snack brand. Every other team, plus any bots, launches a rival bar. All brands compete for the same shoppers in six segments, and shoppers can also buy nothing.

Join in 30 seconds

Scan the QR code on the big screen with your phone camera, or open the game page and type the 4-letter code.
Type your first name. No app, no account.
Join a team or create one and name it. Your teammates get a role each. In individual mode you run your own brand.
If your phone locks or the page reloads, open it again: you return to the same seat.

Team roles

Lead: Chairs the team and submits the final decision. If the Lead's phone dies, any teammate can take over. In this game: Write your positioning in one line: for whom, against what, why us.
Analyst: Owns the numbers and the team's prediction for the round. In this game: Read the segment table: a price-sensitive segment punishes a high price fast.
Treasurer: Watches the budget and costs before the team commits. In this game: Check margin per bar: protein and premium packaging raise unit cost.
Risk and ethics officer: Flags harms and pushes back before the team commits. In this game: Do not promise healthy to fitness buyers with a sugary recipe; ratings will fall.
Voice: Talks to other teams and presents the team's story at the debrief. In this game: Decide where promotion goes: it only builds awareness in segments you target.

The three rounds

Each round you predict your own result, make your decisions within about 8 minutes, and then the model reveals what happened. An event card lands between rounds.

1
Q1 · Soft launch
Choose up to three targets and design your bar. This is the only quarter you can buy the AED 25k A/B price test.
Watch for: Read your take-up line: which segment bought most, and what share of sales came from your targets.
2
Q2 · Read the data
The test option is gone. Your test results, if any, and last quarter's segment winners now appear on your phone. An event card may have changed costs, channels or rivals.
Watch for: Compare your test's two prices with the winners' prices. Check whether a mismatch line cut your brand rating.
3
Q3 · Scale up
Same form as Quarter 2, now with two quarters of segment winners behind you. Last chance to adjust price, recipe and targets.
Watch for: Look at under-served segments in the headline and the winners table. Did your positioning finally match your recipe?

Your decisions

What each control on your phone does, and how to think about it.

Target segments (up to 3)	Every round	Most of your promotion (85%) is split evenly across your targets; the rest spreads thinly over all six segments. Targets also drive Resilience (fit and focus) and brand rating (does the recipe match their needs). Anyone can still buy your bar. Targets that want similar things are easier to serve with one recipe. Two very different segments split your promotion and your fit.
Price per bar	Every round	AED 4 to 20. Each segment loses interest as price rises, at its own rate. Your margin per bar is price minus unit cost. Check the price-sensitivity column for your targets. A low price wins volume, but volume cannot rescue a margin of about AED 1.
Sugar level (0 none – 4 very high)	Every round	Segments that like sugar gain utility from each level; others lose it. Fitness enthusiasts and older adults avoid sugar. After the sugar-tax event each level adds AED 0.35 to unit cost. Targeting sugar-avoiding segments with sugar level 3 or 4 is a positioning mismatch and costs brand rating.
Protein level (0 none – 4 very high)	Every round	Each level adds AED 0.45 to unit cost. Fitness enthusiasts value protein most; office workers and parents value some. Protein is only worth its cost if your targets care about it. Ask the Treasurer what it does to margin per bar.
Packaging	Every round	Premium costs AED 1.60 per bar, eco AED 1.00, basic AED 0.40. Each segment prefers different packaging; tourists like premium, students and older adults like basic. Premium packaging on a bar priced less than AED 1.50 above unit cost looks cheap and lowers brand rating.
Main channel	Every round	Supermarket, gym or delivery app. Each segment shops in different places, so channel fit adds to your appeal. Events can raise gym or delivery reach. Choose the channel your main target actually uses, as shown in the Shops at column.
Promotion spend	Every round	AED 0 to 200k, paid from profit. It builds awareness with diminishing returns, mostly in the segments you target. The first tens of thousands do the most. With three targets, each gets less, so think about how far your budget stretches.
A/B price test (AED 25k)	Round 1 only	Pick one segment to test AED 8 against AED 14 with your recipe and this quarter's rivals. Results show in Quarters 2 and 3 as take-up, estimated bars and estimated margin before promotion. Test the segment you most plan to scale in. Evidence on price beats a guess when you only get three quarters.

What you see on your phone

Segment profiles (research panel): One row per segment: buyers per quarter, attitude to sugar and protein, preferred packaging, price sensitivity and favourite shop. This is your main research tool.
Costs: Base cost AED 2.00 per bar plus AED 0.45 per protein level. Packaging adds AED 1.60, 1.00 or 0.40. Sugar tax shows if that event happened. Use it to check your margin per bar.
Your A/B test and segment winners: From Quarter 2: if you bought a test, it shows take-up, estimated bars and margin at AED 8 and AED 14. A table shows who won each segment last quarter, at what price and take-up.
Your last quarter and Market news: Your profit, bars sold and brand rating out of 100. Market news lists active events, such as a cheap rival bar or halved promotion.

How you are scored

Every game in the library uses the same scoreboard. Your round result is your Profit (AED k); the leaderboard adds resilience and trust.

Score = 100 × (0.5 × performance + 0.25 × resilience + 0.25 × trust) + prediction points

Performance: ProfitProfit in AED k each quarter: bars sold times (price minus unit cost), minus promotion, minus AED 25k if you bought the test. Bars sold come from all six segments through a logit choice against every rival bar and buying nothing.

Resilience (0–100)Resilience moves halfway each quarter towards a new score. It rises when your recipe, packaging, channel and price fit your targets and most sales come from them. It falls when targets want very different sugar or price levels, and when cumulative profit is negative.

Trust (0–100)Trust is your brand rating, starting at 60 and gaining 2 a quarter. A sugary bar for sugar-avoiders costs 9; a low-protein bar for fitness buyers costs 6. Low-sugar, high-protein for fitness adds 4; low sugar for parents adds 2. Cheap-looking premium and heavy promotion during the scandal cost points.

Performance is your total Profit over the rounds, scaled from the lowest to the highest in the room. Before each round you also predict “Your profit this quarter”: land close and earn up to 10 bonus points; miss by the whole amount and earn none. The facilitator may change the weights before the game starts.

Tips

Write your positioning first: for whom, against what, why you. Then set every slider to serve that line.
Segments differ most on sugar and price sensitivity. Pairing segments that agree on both keeps your fit high.
Unit cost moves with every recipe choice. Recheck margin per bar each time you add protein or premium packaging.
Untargeted segments still buy a little. Do not chase them with promotion unless the recipe suits them.
Use the winners table to find segments nobody serves well, not only the ones the leader already owns.
Treat the test as evidence about price response in one segment, then reason about the rest.

Common mistakes

Targeting three segments that want opposite things. Promotion spreads thin and the recipe fits none of them.
Pricing a few dirhams above unit cost. Volume rises a little, but profit cannot recover from a thin margin.
Promising health to fitness buyers or older adults with a high-sugar bar. Brand rating drops each quarter you do it.

A worked example

Your brand targets fitness enthusiasts and busy parents with sugar 0, protein 3, eco packaging, supermarket and AED 12. Unit cost is AED 4.35, so each bar earns AED 7.65. You sell about 29.7k bars for AED 227k of margin. After AED 60k promotion and the AED 25k test, profit is about AED 142k, and the brand rating rises because the recipe matches both targets.

Shocks that can hit

The facilitator draws one event card before rounds 2 and 3. It changes the market from that round on.

Big rival cuts price 20%. A multinational snack brand slashes its bar price by a fifth across the GCC. Every segment now has a strong cheap alternative.
Influencer scandal. A popular fitness influencer is exposed for fake reviews. Shoppers distrust paid promotion; awareness from promotion is halved this quarter.
Excise tax on sugary products. A new excise tax hits sugary snacks. Each level of sugar now adds AED 0.35 to unit cost, and sugar-sensitive shoppers care more.
Gym chain partnership. A regional gym chain opens its shelves to healthy brands. Gym channel reach rises for every segment.
Ramadan season. Ramadan shifts snacking to the evening. Delivery-app orders rise in every segment and the market grows 10%.

The model behind the game

Multinomial logit with an outside option. Each shopper picks the bar with the highest utility, or buys nothing. Segments weigh sugar, protein, packaging, price and channel differently, so one product cannot win everyone.

P_ij = e^V_ij / (1 + Σ_k e^V_ik) ; V_ij = β_s·attributes_j − γ_s·price_j + channel fit + awareness(promotion) ; profit = Σ_s size_s·P_s·(price − unit cost) − promotion − test

Segmentation: Splitting the market into groups of buyers with similar needs and behaviour.
Targeting: Choosing which segments to serve and focusing your effort on them.
Positioning: The clear promise your product makes to its target, and why it beats the alternatives.
Logit choice: A model where each shopper picks the option with the highest utility, including buying nothing.
Price sensitivity: How quickly a segment stops buying as price rises. Students are high, tourists low.
Unit cost: What one bar costs to make: base cost plus protein, packaging and any sugar tax.
A/B test: Trying two versions, here two prices, to see which works before you commit at scale.
Channel fit: How well your main shop matches where a segment actually buys.

For facilitators 3 rounds · about 50 minutes

Set-up

Team mode with four to six teams works well; bots fill the room to four brands.
Allow 8 minutes per round. Quarter 1 has eight decisions, so give a minute to read the segment table first.
Before Quarter 1, stress that the A/B test is only available now and its results arrive next quarter.
Market size scales with the number of brands, so each segment's buyer count grows in larger rooms.

Modes

Team: One brand per team. The Lead owns targets, the Analyst price, the Voice promotion and the Treasurer the test.
Individual: Every player launches a brand, so more bars compete in every segment and take-up per brand falls. Bots appear only if fewer than four players join.
Hybrid: Each player runs a brand within a team, and the team board averages members' scores. Teammates can split segments between them to avoid fighting each other.

Run sheet

Before class	Open the facilitator console on the projector laptop, choose the mode in Setup, and check the QR shows.
0–5 min	Students scan and join. Read the situation aloud while teams form. Point out the roles on their phones.
5–15 min	Round 1: 8 minutes to decide and predict, then Reveal. Read the headline and one surprising line from a team.
Between rounds	Draw or choose the event card. Give teams 30 seconds to read it before opening the next round.
15–25 min	Round 2, then Reveal.
27–37 min	Round 3, then Final results: podium, awards and the score chart.
Last 12 min	Debrief with the questions below, then open reflections (4 minutes). Download the CSV.

What usually happens

Teams crowd office workers and students because they are the default targets. Ask who served the other four.
Some teams cut price to the floor. Point to the thin-margin line and ask what volume would need to be.
Mismatch lines on brand rating are a strong teaching moment. Ask the team which promise their recipe broke.
Teams with test results often ignore them. Ask them to read their own test aloud before deciding Quarter 2.

Debrief questions

Did your A/B test change your price or target? If you skipped it, what did you guess wrong?
Which segment did you ignore that a rival won? What did their product do that yours did not?
Where did your positioning promise something your recipe did not deliver?

Follow-up probes

Which segment would you never target with your Quarter 1 recipe, and why?
What did your test tell you that the segment table could not?
Was there a segment nobody served well? What would a bar for it look like?
How did the event card change which segment was most attractive?
If you could only change one decision for Quarter 3, which one and why?

Reflection and evidence

Write a one-paragraph positioning statement for your bar: target segment, need, point of difference and price. Support it with evidence from your A/B test or the market results.

Students write 80–120 words on their phones. The Data tab exports every decision, result, prediction and reflection as one CSV for grading.

Console controls

Pause, extend or set the timer; step back a round
Draw, choose or write the event card
Move players, make a Lead, add computer players
Award or fine with a reason that appears on phones
Message every screen; hide names; spotlight a team
Keys: P projector mode, Q join QR